For 2024, we are expressing our outlook as two parts as we see the first and second halves of the year progressing differently. In the first half of the year, we are expecting central banks in both Canada and the U.S. to maintain their policy interest rates at current levels. As the previously aggressive hiking cycles put increasing pressure on consumer and business spending, we see both countries entering mild recessions, with contracting GDPs, slightly increasing unemployment rates, and pressure on corporate earnings.
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